Mitron!

Namaskar! Lately I have been thinking about writing about political scenarios, elections and mainly national interests. I think on the eve of Gujarat Exit polls, it is the right time to discuss Gujarat Polls and mainly its impact on National political scenario.

We have seen, in the last three months, a heated political campaign by both BJP and INC. When you see the PM of India, and many cabinet ministers campaigning and camping in Gujarat for better part of last two months, you  get to know the significance of Gujarat elections. As many were arguing, (and when I say many I usually mean liberals) why should a PM should campaign for assembly election, why should parliament be kept closed due to a assembly elections, I think the answer is simple: If BJP losses Gujarat, BJP CANNOT win 2019(LS) on their own. Because in 2014, Modi appealed to the voters on the basis of Gujarat model. If BJP losses Gujarat, it clearly indicates that Gujarat BJP (without Modi) couldn't apply Gujarat model as effectively as Modi did. But let's not discuss what will happen on 18th, let's discuss what has happened till yesterday: Poll campaigning! 

         The poll campaigning for INC should have started when Patidar andolan started for reservation ( which is BTW is a constitutional impossibility). Congress couldn't capitalise on the situation but Gujarat BJP faced a big blow when order came from Delhi and Anandiben was removed from CM's post and Vijay Rupani (a Jain) was appointed as new CM. Appointing CM from the state's minority is what BJP is doing since Maharashtra and Haryana. But this time they chose only a puppet, which I think may prove costly as far as assembly elections are concerned. Appointing a non-Patel is a wise move but appointing some one who is not a mass leader nor has the capacity to be one is a suicide. Now 18th will decide if it was a suicide or a masterstroke by Shah! 

          Coming back to campaigning, when I talked to my friends in Gujarat, they said, over confidence of BJP karyakartas is the main reason why BJP is facing a tough fight from congress and HAJ( Hardik, Alpesh, Jignesh). But how tough this fight is? Well Modiji himself held over 20 rallies, Shah has travelled to each and every constituency, BJP is holding press conference every now and then to counter Rahul Gandhi, dragging Pakistan into state elections, as many would say it shows nervousness of BJP, but I don't think BJP is nervous, it's just that they are trying too hard and have used every arrow in the quiver. Because, yes, they are facing anti incumbency, and they don't want to lose to a party which they have uprooted from almost every state. Hardik Patel tweeted that, BJP was so  busy in dirty politics that they forgot to publish Manifesto. Well let's see why BJP don't have to publish maifesto at all. Let me draw your attention to one important factor which allowed BJP to publish manifesto a day before voting day( on 8th)- RSS swayamsewaks! RSS swayamsewaks must have carried out a campaign of their own to help BJP in this situation. RSS may still be weak in most of the rural areas of India, but RSS is very strong in Gujarat, both in urban and rural areas. If BJP is car then RSS is its engine. So I think whenever BJP faced difficulties during campaigning, RSS was the solution.  When Amit Shah, a person who is described as 'Chanakya', says BJP is going to win 150 seats, such statements can't be taken lightly. 

                 Now let us see, how Congress have played in this game. Like BJP, CONgress also didn't have a state face, using which they could have fought this battle. So what they do? They bring their star campaigner from Delhi- Mr Rahul Gandhi. Why on earth congress would do such a thing? He has lost over 35 elections as INC-VP (a world record BTW). He has played temple run game in Gujarat! Yesterday I saw him wearing rudraksh! So now when we'll talk about changes Modi did in his tenure we can list these: 1) Made a Gandhi visit temples. 2) Made Manmohan speak. Anyways, joining hands with HAJ was a good move. As they say, desperate times, desperate measures. But I don't know who convinced the HAJ trio that they can get this reservation and how ? If not for Mani's 'neech' remark, congress could have given a tougher fight to BJP, but damage was already done!  Nevertheless, I think congress has given a tough fight to BJP which is surprise, to be honest. BJP is facing anti incumbency whereas congress is facing Modi charisma!

                   So let's wait and watch who wins: Caste politics or Vikas! Who will cut the opponent's kite ans say: Kai po che!